This ongoing project at the University of Birmingham is using probabilistic climate change information as the basis of a multi-model methodology to; a) determine the range of potential impacts on hydrology within a water-stressed catchment; b) assess the probabilities of risk of water shortage as a result of these changes, and; c) determine the most most robust policies and adaptation pathways available to water resource managers as a result of their modelled performance across the range of uncertainty. This presentation would be suitable for those involved with providing sustainable water resources in the face of envirnomental change. It is shown that uncertainty within climate change information should not be seen as a vehicle for inaction, and that useful data for managers can be gained despite uncertainties. Delegates will learn that by taking a risk-based apparoach to climate change adaptation in the water sector, costly maladaptations that arise from using precise but inaccurate climate data can be avoided. The performance of various possible water management strategies in alleviating water stress are analysed across the range of climate change uncertainty, enabling those approaches that decrease risk across the range to be discovered. Therefore, robust options that carry are 'no-risk' can be identified and put into practice.
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