New research from ING Bank’s economics team has found that total packaging volume for consumer goods products is expected to increase in usage across the globe.
The research found that packaging for consumer goods in the US is expected to grow 1.5% annually until 2025, outpacing expected population growth. A similar trend is found in Europe, where packaging waste per capita is set to rise by 1.5% per year on average until 2025.
Plastics are expected to account for around one-third of overall packaging waste by 2040, an increase of 8% on 2018 levels. Packaging growth is also expected across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
For ING’s senior sector economist Thijs Geijer, the increase in packaging could act as a “significant blocker” to creating a sustainable future that tackles both consumption and emissions.
“Unless words are matched with deeds, packaging consumption, waste, and a lack of recycling capacity will remain a daunting challenge for the consumer goods industry’s sustainability targets,” Geijer said. Right now, we continue to be concerned by the elevated costs of sustainable packaging which is stopping consumer goods companies from using less polluting packaging.
“However, we remain cautiously optimistic about the untapped opportunities for stronger regulation and cross-industry initiatives to reduce the environmental impact of packaging. Reducing packaging waste and plastic pollution is achievable but, failing to act on the scale required doesn’t bring us closer to a circular economy.”
Trade-off challenges
The research notes that corporates are trying to introduce sustainable packaging forms that are not only more circular, but also have reduced emissions when the lifecycle of the product is taken into account. This can be seen in returnable glass bottles, which have a carbon footprint around three times lower than aluminium, ING notes, and five times lower than a one-way glass bottle.
However, changing consumer demands and current cost issues are slowing the transition to sustainable packaging.
ING analysis shows that it would have cost a European beverage manufacturer around 20% more in 2022 to only use recycled plastics for its bottles. Packaging also remains “one of the most carbon-intensive elements in the value chain” for some sectors.
On the consumer front, convenience, on-the-go products and home deliveries are all leading to increased packaging material use. Indeed, the food and beverage industry alone now accounts for 40% of all European packaging.
Smaller households are also likely to cause a spike in packaging as they prefer to purchase smaller pack sizes of items to cut back on things like food waste, but in turn, have to use more packaging.
The research comes just days after EA Environmental Action found that since January 2023, more than 40% of the global population has been living in places unable to manage the amount of plastic waste that is generated and discarded.
By July 2023, this figure will reach 60%, with EA Environmental Action warning that a plastics “overshoot day” will continue to move forward unless nations introduce measures to combat plastics waste.
The research found that almost 69,000,000 tonnes of plastic will be mismanaged in 2024, likely seeping into the natural environment as a result. Currently, 43% of global plastic waste is mismanaged at the end of its life.
Nations are this week negotiating a Paris-style global treaty for plastics.
UN nations are convening in Paris to agree on a new treaty to stem the use of plastics. The UK has this week joined the likes of Norway and Rwanda to form a “High Ambition Coalition”, that calls for a legally binding target to be set to end plastic pollution by 2040.