Global warming forecast lower than previous predictions

The Met Office's new climate forecast model predicts that the rise in global warming over the next five years may not be as extreme as previously estimated.


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According to the new data, the average global temperature is expected to remain between 0.28°C and 0.59°C above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2013-2017, with values most likely to be about 0.43°C higher than average.

This is lower than the previously predicted 0.54°C, above the long term average, it announced through its earlier climate model, known as HadCM3.

The updated decadal forecast, published in December last year, is the first to make use of the Met Office’s latest climate model, HadGEM3.

However, it stressed that these forecasts are for research use only, adding that the results would not provide any further insight into long term trends on climate change.

“The fact that the new model predicts less warming, globally, for the coming five years does not necessarily tell us anything about long-term predictions of climate change for the coming century,” the Met Office said.

With these new findings, the Met Office is researching potential causes of the recent slowdown in global warming, including natural variability, the recent deep solar minimum, the influence of forcing from short-lived species, such as sulphate aerosol emissions, and the climate response to these forcings.

Leigh Stringer

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